Mixed forecast for Australian crop production

Australia produces between 25 and 60 million tonnes of grains, oilseeds and pulses each year, and exports about two-thirds of this, earning over $10 billion in export income   Australia’s total winter crop production for 2017-18 forecast to decrease 39 per cent to 36.3 million tonnes following a record 59.3 million tonnes in 2016-17   Production still forecast to remain above 10 year average to 2015-16   Mixed winter rainfall adversely affected crop conditions in key cropping regions Following exceptionally high crop yields in 2016-17, Australia’s total winter crop production is forecast to decrease 39 per cent, but still remain above the 10-year average to 2015-16. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources, Barnaby Joyce, said the latest forecast, released today by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), demonstrated the impact variable weather conditions is having on Australia’s cropping regions. “Australia is a big country with a variable climate and highly fluctuating rainfall, so it is unrealistic to expect that all of our crops will be growing well at all times,” Minister Joyce said. “According to the latest ABARES forecast, we will see a 39 per cent drop in total winter crop production to 36.3 million tonnes, as a result of mixed seasonal conditions. “What we have to remember though is this forecast dip is coming off the back of Australia’s biggest winter crop on record last season at over 59.3 million tonnes, and yields are forecast to remain above the 10-year average to 2015-16.” Minister Joyce said farmers have had below average and highly variable rainfall over winter in most Australian cropping regions, which has adversely affected crop condition in some of Australia’s key cropping regions. However crops are in generally good condition going into spring in Victoria, eastern South Australia, southern and eastern New South Wales and southern Western Australia. “I know some areas are doing it incredibly tough, but our farmers continue to be resilient and demonstrate the strength of the farm business environment in Australia and continue to take advantage of strong Coalition Government investment in agriculture,” Minister Joyce said.
  “We’ve seen the gross value of farm production reach $63 billion in 2016-17 and agriculture is now the largest contributor to national GDP growth and fastest growing economic sector – up a formidable 23 per cent over the year.” “Although yields are down, crop prices remain positive. In the ABARES 2017-18 June forecast for world crop prices, wheat prices are forecast to rise by five per cent to $US205/t, barley to rise by four per cent to US$165/t, and cotton to rise slightly to US 83c/lb.” “Farmers impacted by tough or trying times will continue to have the full support of the Coalition Government through our suite of measures under the $4 billion Agricultural Competitiveness White Paper, such as the Farm Household Allowance, $250 million for drought loans and the doubling of the Farm Management Deposits cap to $800,000,” Minister Joyce said. “I am confident that despite challenges, the continued hard work of Australia’s farmers will drive a bright future for our cropping and agricultural industries.” The September 2017 edition of Australian crop report is available on the ABARES website at agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications. Fast facts
 According to the latest ABARES forecast for Australia’s winter crops production (2017-18): o Wheat:forecast38percentdeclineto21.6milliontonnes(downfrom35mtonnes2016- 17; 5-year average of 24.8 m tonnes) o Barley:forecast40percentdeclineto8.0mtonnes(downfrom13.4mtonnes2016-17; 5-year average of 8.5 m tonnes) o Canola:forecast33percentdeclineto2.8milliontonnes(downfrom4.1mtonnes2016- 17; 5-year average of 3.5 m tonnes) o Chickpea:forecast36percentdeclineto1.2milliontonnes(downfrom1.9mtonnes 2016-17; 5-year average of 709,000 tonnes) o Oats:forecast45percentdeclineto1.0milliontonnes(downfrom1.9mtonnes;5-year average of 1.2 million tonnes).   ABARES estimates gross value of farm production reached a record $63 billion in 2016-17.   The value of farm exports alone is estimated to have reached a record $48 billion in 2016-17, plus fisheries exports of around $1.4 billion and forestry product exports of over $3 billion.   Australian agriculture was the largest contributor to national GDP growth in 2016-17, contributing 0.5 percentage points of national total 1.9 per cent growth.   The agricultural sector also grew the fastest of all 19 industries in 2016-17—up 23 per cent.
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